Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lindor homered to right (392 feet).5–2
- 6Stowers homered to center (417 feet).5–1
- 5Ewing singled to center, Polanco scored, Alvarez to second.4–1
- 5Edwards singled to right, Mack scored.4–0
- 5Mack singled to left, Hernández and Marsee scored.3–0
- 5Marsee doubled to right, Conine scored, Hernández to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML MIA -101 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.2%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −7 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +15 Elo | NYM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 3021–32 | Road vs home | 25–3127th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 20th of 301490 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–58 | 52–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 26–37 |
| Underdog | 30–29 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 56–51–3 | 48–52–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 20–26 NYM in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 46.