Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mets- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 2 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Robert Jr. singled to left, Bichette scored and Benge scored, Robert Jr. to second.2–4
- 7Marsee homered to right center (385 feet).2–2
- 6Lindor scored on error, Robert Jr. safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Pauley, Bichette to second.1–2
- 6Lindor singled to right, Alvarez scored.1–1
- 4Stowers homered to right (368 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML MIA +114 / NYM -137
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 3.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +20 Elo | NYM 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 3021–31 | Road vs home | 24–3126th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 19th of 301492 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–57 | 51–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 30–28 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 56–50–3 | 48–51–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 20–25 NYM in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 45.