Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor homered to left (396 feet), Semien scored and Torrens scored.3–14
- 8Ewing hit sacrifice fly to third, Taylor scored.3–11
- 8Torrens walked, Young scored, Semien to second, Taylor to third.3–10
- 7Bichette hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored, Torrens to third.3–9
- 7Taylor homered to left (383 feet), Alvarez scored and Young scored.3–8
- 6Semien homered to left center (424 feet), Taylor scored.3–5
- 4Albies homered to left center (407 feet), Olson scored.3–3
- 3Lindor homered to left center (367 feet), Ewing scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.1–3
- 1Lindor tripled to right, Ewing scored.1–1
- 1Albies reached on infield single to shortstop, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML ATL -105 / NYM -114
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.0%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +16 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3030–23 | Road vs home | 22–3028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–46 | 49–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–36 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 51–48–6 | 47–49–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 28–18 NYM in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 46.