Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting1-3
- Christian ScottPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Olson singled to center, Jarvis scored, Baldwin to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -184 / NYM +151
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.5%, market 61.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -163
- NYM +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 3.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +16 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +17 Elo | ATL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.226th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–25 | Road vs home | 24–3026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 6th of 301525 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–47 | 50–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–36 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–49–6 | 48–50–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 28–20 NYM in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 48.