Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benge doubled to right, Ewing scored, Lindor to third.2–3
- 6Olson homered to center (402 feet), Baldwin scored.2–2
- 5Ewing hit sacrifice fly to center, Baty scored.0–2
- 5Alvarez doubled to left, Taylor scored, Baty to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 50%
- ML ATL -112 / NYM -108
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.6%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -102
- NYM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −13 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +32 Elo | ATL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3030–24 | Road vs home | 23–3028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 6th of 301526 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–47 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–36 | 25–36 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–48–6 | 48–49–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 28–19 NYM in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 47.