Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hicks singled to right, Lopez scored.6–2
- 6Conine homered to right (416 feet).5–2
- 4Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Ruiz scored.4–2
- 2Taylor homered to left (410 feet), Semien scored.3–2
- 2Sanoja homered to left (377 feet), Stowers scored.3–0
- 1Hicks singled to left, Lopez scored, Hicks to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML MIA +112 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.4%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -122
- MIA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +15 | MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +24 Elo | NYM 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–32 | Road vs home | 25–3227th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 148621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–58 | 52–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 26–38 |
| Underdog | 31–29 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 56–52–3 | 48–53–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 21–26 NYM in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.