Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chaparro homered to left (383 feet).2–6
- 6Jarvis singled to center, Dubón scored, Bart to second.1–6
- 6Harris II homered to right (421 feet), Olson scored and Albies scored.1–5
- 4Abrams homered to right (393 feet).1–2
- 2Jarvis singled to center, Dubón scored, Riley to second.0–2
- 1Olson homered to right (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML WSH +103 / ATL -124
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.5%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -112
- WSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −8 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +38 Elo | ATL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–21 | Road vs home | 33–203rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 26th of 301481 | Elo rating | 15276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–44 | 60–49 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 35–38 |
| Underdog | 49–29 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 60–44–6 | 52–51–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 20–27 ATL in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.