Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Braves- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7García Jr. tripled to center, Wood scored.4–5
- 6Albies singled to center, Baldwin scored and Acuña Jr. scored.3–5
- 5Yastrzemski homered to right (413 feet), Smith scored.3–3
- 4Acuña Jr. homered to center (421 feet).3–1
- 4Lile homered to center (408 feet).3–0
- 3García Jr. homered to right (455 feet).2–0
- 2Lile homered to right center (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML WSH +134 / ATL -162
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +73 Elo | ATL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–20 | Road vs home | 32–204th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 15266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–44 | 60–48 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 35–37 |
| Underdog | 48–29 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 60–43–6 | 52–50–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 20–26 ATL in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 46.