Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Joe MackBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4
- Robert StockPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edwards singled to center, Lopez scored.2–0
- 5Mack homered to center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 52%
- ML MIA -122 / NYM +101
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.4%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -110
- NYM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +1 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Robert Stock (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +3 Elo | MIA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3023–32 | Road vs home | 25–3327th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–58 | 52–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 32–29 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 56–53–3 | 48–54–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 22–26 NYM in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 48.