Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JR RitchiePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to center, Dubón scored.2–4
- 5Riley scored on error, Jarvis safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Abrams.2–3
- 4Olson homered to right (401 feet).2–2
- 4Wood hit sacrifice fly to center, Tena scored.2–1
- 4Chaparro hit by pitch, Ruiz scored, Vivas to second, Tena to third.1–1
- 3Yastrzemski homered to right center (403 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML WSH +104 / ATL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.3%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -113
- WSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −19 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: JR Ritchie: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3032–23 | Road vs home | 35–203rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–46 | 62–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 37–38 |
| Underdog | 49–31 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 61–45–6 | 53–52–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 20–29 ATL in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 49.