Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sanoja doubled to left, Stowers scored.3–11
- 8Dubón doubled to right, Harris II scored.2–11
- 8Harris II singled to right, Olson scored.2–10
- 8Acuña Jr. homered to right (337 feet).2–9
- 7Dubón singled to center, Harris II scored.2–8
- 7Harris II tripled to center, Olson scored.2–7
- 7Conine singled to right, Jiménez scored, Sanoja to third.2–6
- 7Sanoja singled to center, Edwards scored, Jiménez to second.1–6
- 6Baldwin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Thomas scored, Jarvis safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Edwards.0–6
- 6Riley hit sacrifice fly to center, Dubón scored.0–5
- 6Thomas doubled to left, Harris II scored, Dubón to third.0–4
- 6Olson homered to center (422 feet).0–3
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to left center (390 feet), Baldwin scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML MIA +153 / ATL -164
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.0%, market 61.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -157
- MIA +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −12 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +49 Elo | ATL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–34 | Road vs home | 38–202nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–60 | 65–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 40–38 |
| Underdog | 32–31 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 56–56–3 | 53–55–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 15–33 ATL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 48.