Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-4
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mack grounded out to second, Caissie scored, Marsee to third.1–4
- 3Dubón singled to right, Harris II scored.0–4
- 2Baldwin singled to center, Dubón scored and Riley scored.0–3
- 2Riley hit a ground rule double, Albies scored, Dubón to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML MIA +116 / ATL -123
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.0%, market 54.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +56 Elo | ATL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–33 | Road vs home | 37–202nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–59 | 64–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 39–38 |
| Underdog | 32–30 | 25–11 |
| Overs–unders | 56–55–3 | 53–54–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 15–32 ATL in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 47.