Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Wade MecklerBatting2-4
- Brett KerryPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Hernández doubled to center, Lopez scored, Conine to third.0–7
- 5Conine singled to left, Edwards scored, Lopez to second.0–6
- 5Edwards singled to left, Marsee scored.0–5
- 3Lopez singled to left, Edwards scored and Marsee scored, Stowers to second.0–4
- 3Edwards doubled to left, Caissie scored and Sanoja scored, Marsee to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 59%
- ML LAA +137 / MIA -147
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.1%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +14 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +57 Elo | MIA 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–38 | Road vs home | 34–248th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 28th of 301444 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–63 | 55–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 23–30 |
| Underdog | 45–41 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders | 50–65–1 | 57–57–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–5 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 10.