Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jose SiriBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel singled to left, Meckler scored.3–12
- 8Conine homered to right (368 feet).2–12
- 7Jiménez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mack scored, Sanoja to second, Marsee out at third.2–11
- 5Stowers singled to center, Marsee scored and Sanoja scored.2–10
- 5Sanoja singled to center, Caissie scored and Mack scored, Sanoja to second, Marsee to third.2–8
- 5Conine homered to right center (434 feet), Lopez scored.2–6
- 4Sanoja singled to left, Caissie scored, Ramírez to second.2–4
- 2Siri homered to center (413 feet).2–3
- 1Caissie singled to left, Lopez scored, Conine to second.1–3
- 1Lopez reached on infield single to third, Edwards scored on throwing error by first baseman Schanuel, Lopez to third.1–2
- 1Stowers scored on Rodriguez wild pitch, Edwards to second on wild pitch by Rodriguez. Los Angeles Angels challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–1
- 1Stowers scored on Rodriguez wild pitch, Edwards to second on wild pitch by Rodriguez.1–1
- 1Neto doubled to shortstop, Schanuel scored. Miami Marlins challenged: call on the field was upheld.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 59%
- ML LAA +137 / MIA -147
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 59.3%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −13 | LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +65 Elo | MIA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–39 | Road vs home | 35–245th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 28th of 301442 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–64 | 56–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 24–30 |
| Underdog | 45–42 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders | 50–66–1 | 57–58–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–6 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 11.