Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Burger singled to right, Langford scored and Seager scored, Nimmo to second.4–1
- 10Nimmo singled to right, Lopez scored, Seager to second, Langford to third.2–1
- 4Díaz singled to left, Duran scored, Nimmo to second.1–1
- 1Trout homered to center (418 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -106 / LAA -101
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.5%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -102
- LAA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +24 Elo | TEX 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 25–3328th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 143928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–67 | 53–65 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–41 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 30–26 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders | 61–50–7 | 51–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 26–19 LAA in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 45.