Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-4
- Jacob deGromPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Siri singled to right, Ballesteros scored, Guzman to second.0–7
- 5Siri grounded into fielder's choice to second, Guzman scored, Lowe out at second.0–6
- 5Lowe singled to right, Grissom and Schanuel scored, Guzman to third.0–5
- 5Guzman reached on infield single to pitcher, Trout scored, Grissom to second, Schanuel to third.0–3
- 2Trout singled to right, Frazier scored, Meckler to third.0–2
- 2Frazier singled to left, Guzman scored, Lowe thrown out at home.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML TEX -146 / LAA +136
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 3.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +14 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +28 Elo | TEX 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 19th of 3028–34 | Road vs home | 27–3427th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 144128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–69 | 55–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–43 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 47–43 |
| Overs–unders | 61–53–7 | 51–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 27–21 LAA in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 48.