Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- George KlassenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Frazier reached on infield single to first, Neto scored, Ballesteros out at home on runner's fielder's choice.2–5
- 6Trout singled to center, Peraza scored, Meckler to second.2–4
- 6Guzman hit sacrifice bunt, Siri scored, Peraza to second.2–3
- 6Siri doubled to left, Grissom scored.2–2
- 3Trout singled to center, Guzman scored.2–1
- 3Seager homered to right (378 feet).2–0
- 2Pederson walked, Carter scored, Lopez to second, Díaz to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML TEX -124 / LAA +116
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.6%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- LAA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −7 | TEX: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: George Klassen: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +32 Elo | TEX 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 26–3427th of 30 |
| 29th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 15th of 301495 | Elo rating | 143928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–68 | 54–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–42 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 46–43 |
| Overs–unders | 61–52–7 | 51–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 27–20 LAA in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.