Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Denzer GuzmanBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Astros- Christian VazquezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ethan PeckoPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored.2–3
- 4Altuve doubled to left, Alvarez scored, Paredes to third.2–2
- 4Guzman doubled, Lowe scored and Grissom scored.2–1
- 3Vázquez homered to left (383 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML LAA +137 / HOU -147
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.5%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −2 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Ethan Pecko (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +53 Elo | HOU 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 29th of 3021–40 | Road vs home | 31–3220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 28th of 301444 | Elo rating | 149814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–69 | 65–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 23–34 |
| Underdog | 49–44 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 52–72–2 | 66–53–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 18–32 HOU in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 50.