Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KlassenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Astros- Cam SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to left (415 feet).3–1
- 5Neto doubled to shortstop, Schanuel scored.3–0
- 4Lowe homered to left (345 feet).2–0
- 3Schanuel singled to center, Meckler scored, Trout to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML LAA +152 / HOU -163
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.5%, market 61.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −24 | LAA: George Klassen: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +53 Elo | HOU 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 3020–40 | Road vs home | 31–3119th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 28th of 301442 | Elo rating | 150013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–69 | 65–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 48–44 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 52–71–2 | 66–52–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 17–32 HOU in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 49.