Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting1-3
- Ryan JohnsonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jensen reached on infield single to second, Rave scored.3–0
- 5Witt Jr. homered to left (365 feet).2–0
- 4Massey homered to right (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML KC -117 / LAA +109
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- KC: Elo 47.9%, market 53.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -113
- LAA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +2 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +14 Elo | LAA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.822nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3021–44 | Road vs home | 29–3527th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301463 | Elo rating | 144428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–61 | 56–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 49–35 | 48–43 |
| Overs–unders | 57–63–4 | 52–70–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 14–10 LAA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.