Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Koss doubled to left, Cavanaugh scored on error, Koss safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Peña.1–4
- 5Eldridge homered to center (423 feet).1–3
- 4Cavanaugh singled to center, Gilbert scored.1–2
- 2Gilbert singled to left, Devers scored.1–1
- 2Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML HOU -187 / SF +173
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.2%, market 64.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -178
- SF +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 64.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 11th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 27–3025th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–56 | 59–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 42–27 | 41–35 |
| Overs–unders | 64–49–7 | 54–54–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–7 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.