Houston Astros at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Daulton VarshoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hays homered to left (361 feet), Bowen scored.2–7
- 6Sheets homered to right (393 feet).2–5
- 4Tatis Jr. homered to left (421 feet), Rengifo scored and Fermin scored.2–4
- 2Merrill homered to center (411 feet).2–1
- 2Varsho homered to right center (395 feet), Trammell scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML HOU +103 / SD -111
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- SD: Elo 57.3%, market 51.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +2 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +51 Elo | SD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 33–269th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–55 | 58–60 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 18–37 |
| Underdog | 42–26 | 40–23 |
| Overs–unders | 63–49–6 | 53–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–5 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.