Houston Astros at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña grounded into double play, second to first to shortstop, Smith scored, Meyers out at second.6–3
- 6Smith homered to left (392 feet).5–3
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to left (400 feet).4–3
- 4Sheets grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Merrill scored, Campusano out at second.4–2
- 4Merrill tripled to right, Machado scored.4–1
- 4Alvarez singled to right, Meyers scored, Peña to third.4–0
- 3Walker singled to center, Alvarez scored and Paredes scored, Altuve to second.3–0
- 2Smith homered to left center (383 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML HOU +101 / SD -108
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- SD: Elo 56.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +12 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +48 Elo | SD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 32–259th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–55 | 58–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 18–35 |
| Underdog | 40–26 | 40–23 |
| Overs–unders | 62–48–6 | 52–62–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–4 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.