Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Hao-Yu LeeBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4
- Logan WebbPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Clark grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lee scored, Torkelson out at second.3–1
- 10Lee singled to right, Greene scored.2–1
- 7Gilbert grounded into fielder's choice to third, Basabe scored.1–1
- 6Torres grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, McKinstry scored, McGonigle out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -125 / SF +116
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- DET: Elo 56.9%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -120
- SF +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 3.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +26 | +2 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 1.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +49 Elo | DET 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–33 | Road vs home | 27–2820th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 148025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–61 | 59–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders | 51–60–6 | 53–53–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–3 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.