Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dingler homered to right center (391 feet).8–0
- 9Torres homered to left center (370 feet), McKinstry scored.7–0
- 9McGonigle grounded out to second, Báez scored, McKinstry to second.5–0
- 5Greene homered to center (403 feet).4–0
- 3Keith singled to right, Dingler scored and Greene scored.3–0
- 3Greene reached on infield single to shortstop, Torres scored on throwing error by shortstop Emerson, Greene to second, Dingler safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML DET +108 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.4%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -111
- DET +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −1 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 1.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +18 Elo | DET 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 32–249th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 9th of 301516 | Elo rating | 150412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–59 | 47–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 31–52 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 49–58–5 | 55–50–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 14–12 SEA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 26.
- Jun 7SEA 4 @ DET 5Picked DET 53%Hit
- Jun 6SEA 4 @ DET 0Picked SEA 53%Hit
- Jun 5SEA 3 @ DET 7Picked SEA 52%Miss
- Oct 10DET 2 @ SEA 3PlayoffsPicked DET 52%Miss
- Oct 8SEA 3 @ DET 9PlayoffsPicked DET 50%Hit
- Oct 7SEA 8 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Hit
- Oct 5DET 2 @ SEA 3PlayoffsPicked DET 58%Miss
- Oct 4DET 3 @ SEA 2PlayoffsPicked SEA 63%Miss