Detroit Tigers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ty MaddenPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Jonah HeimBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Malgeri homered to left (356 feet), Báez scored.13–1
- 9Báez singled to center, Torkelson scored and Clark scored.11–1
- 8Dingler homered to center (411 feet), Báez scored, Malgeri scored and McGonigle scored.9–1
- 8Malgeri grounded into fielder's choice to third, Clark scored on fielding error by third baseman White, Báez to second.5–1
- 8Báez reached on infield single to second, Torkelson scored, Clark to third.4–1
- 8Clark doubled to left, McKinstry scored, Torkelson to third.3–1
- 4McGonigle hit sacrifice fly to right, Torkelson scored.2–1
- 3McGonigle homered to center (415 feet).1–1
- 1Heim doubled to center, Wilson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML DET -143 / ATH +118
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DET: Elo 56.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -128
- ATH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.8 – 5.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −24 | DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +44 Elo | DET 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3021–31 | Road vs home | 21–3330th of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 144628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–59 | 51–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–41 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders | 46–58–5 | 51–54–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–11 ATH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.