Detroit Tigers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Eduardo ValenciaBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4
- Gage JumpPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Outman homered to center (408 feet).11–0
- 8Lee grounded into fielder's choice to third, Valencia scored, Torkelson out at second.10–0
- 8Torkelson singled to center, McGonigle scored, Valencia to third.9–0
- 8Valencia doubled to left, Torres scored and Dingler scored, McGonigle to third.8–0
- 4Valencia doubled to left, McKinstry scored and Torres scored, McGonigle to third.6–0
- 4Torres singled to center, Clark scored and Malgeri scored, McKinstry to third.4–0
- 1Torkelson doubled to center, Dingler scored and Torres scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML DET -126 / ATH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- DET: Elo 59.2%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.1 – 4.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +64 Elo | DET 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 24th of 3023–31 | Road vs home | 21–3530th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 10th of 301513 | Elo rating | 144129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–59 | 51–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–41 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 40–32 |
| Overs–unders | 48–58–5 | 53–54–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 13–11 ATH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.