Detroit Tigers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil reached on bunt single to third, Soderstrom scored.8–6
- 8Bolte homered to center (411 feet), White and Butler scored.8–5
- 8McGonigle singled to left, McKinstry scored, McGonigle to second.8–2
- 7Torkelson singled to left, Greene scored, Valencia to second.7–2
- 6Clark homered to right center (387 feet), Torkelson scored.6–2
- 5Torres homered to right center (396 feet), McGonigle scored.4–2
- 4Wilson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bolte scored, Ornelas out at second.2–2
- 3Butler singled to left, Wilson scored, White to second.2–1
- 1Keith singled to right, Torres scored, Dingler to third.2–0
- 1McGonigle homered to left (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML DET -187 / ATH +153
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- DET: Elo 53.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -165
- ATH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 5.8 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +5 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 21–3430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301511 | Elo rating | 144328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–59 | 51–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–41 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 40–31 |
| Overs–unders | 47–58–5 | 52–54–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–11 ATH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.