Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Max ClarkBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-3
- Landen RouppPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clark grounded into fielder's choice to first, Malgeri scored, Torkelson out at second.8–0
- 7Báez reached on infield single to shortstop, Clark scored.7–0
- 7Clark tripled to center, Valencia scored.6–0
- 7Valencia doubled to center, Dingler scored and Greene scored.5–0
- 7Dingler doubled to left, McGonigle scored.3–0
- 7McGonigle singled to left, McKinstry scored, McGonigle to second.2–0
- 6Torkelson walked, Torres scored, Keith to second, Dingler to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -114 / SF +106
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- DET: Elo 54.3%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -110
- SF +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +30 Elo | DET 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 21st of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 27–2719th of 30 |
| 24th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–61 | 59–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–42 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 41–32 |
| Overs–unders | 51–60–5 | 53–53–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–3 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.