Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Taylor WardBatting1-4
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Báez singled to left, Keith scored and Torkelson scored, Clark to second.11–0
- 9Clark singled to right, Outman scored, Torkelson to second, Keith to third.9–0
- 7Keith singled to center, Dingler scored.8–0
- 7Dingler singled to right, Torres scored on throwing error by right fielder Ward, Dingler to second.7–0
- 7McGonigle homered to center (368 feet), McKinstry scored.6–0
- 2Dingler singled to right, McGonigle scored.4–0
- 1Keith doubled to right, Greene scored.3–0
- 1Dingler homered to center (401 feet), McGonigle scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML DET +102 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.5%, market 51.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -106
- DET +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −3 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +24 Elo | SEA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 33–259th of 30 |
| 24th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 9th of 301517 | Elo rating | 150312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–60 | 48–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 32–53 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 50–59–5 | 56–51–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 15–13 SEA in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 28.
- Aug 5DET 2 @ SEA 4Picked SEA 58%Hit
- Aug 4DET 8 @ SEA 0Picked SEA 53%Miss
- Jun 7SEA 4 @ DET 5Picked DET 53%Hit
- Jun 6SEA 4 @ DET 0Picked SEA 53%Hit
- Jun 5SEA 3 @ DET 7Picked SEA 52%Miss
- Oct 10DET 2 @ SEA 3PlayoffsPicked DET 52%Miss
- Oct 8SEA 3 @ DET 9PlayoffsPicked DET 50%Hit
- Oct 7SEA 8 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked SEA 55%Hit