Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting3-4
- Keider MonteroPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Adames homered to left (367 feet).2–5
- 2Lee singled to center, Basabe scored and Gilbert scored, Eldridge to second.2–4
- 2McKinstry singled to right, Torkelson scored.2–2
- 1Devers homered to center (401 feet), Lee scored.1–2
- 1Dingler grounded into fielder's choice to third, McGonigle scored, Torres out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML DET -142 / SF +132
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 53.1%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -136
- SF +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: JT Brubaker: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +21 Elo | DET 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 26–2721st of 30 |
| 24th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 148025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–60 | 58–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 40–32 |
| Overs–unders | 51–59–5 | 53–52–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–2 SF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.