Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker grounded out to second, Altuve scored.10–5
- 9Young homered to right (358 feet), Rodríguez scored and Naylor scored.10–4
- 8Paredes homered to left center (407 feet), Peña scored.7–4
- 8Donovan singled to center, Rodden scored.7–2
- 8Rodden doubled to center, Robles scored.6–2
- 4Donovan singled to left, Young scored, Robles to third.5–2
- 2Vázquez homered to left (361 feet).4–2
- 2Donovan singled to right, Robles scored.4–1
- 2Robles tripled to right, Naylor scored and Young scored.3–1
- 2Young reached on infield single to pitcher, Rodríguez scored, Naylor to second.1–1
- 1Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop, Alvarez scored, Varsho to second, Paredes to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML SEA +111 / HOU -119
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.9%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +41 Elo | HOU 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 30 |
| 26th of 3024–37 | Road vs home | 31–2914th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 150513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–74 | 65–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 23–31 |
| Underdog | 17–17 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 59–56–8 | 65–51–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 32–16 HOU in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 48.