Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Weston WilsonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 2We. Wilson homered to left center (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML SEA +152 / NYY -163
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.9%, market 61.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- SEA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.3 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +55 Elo | NYY 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 3023–36 | Road vs home | 31–2610th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–73 | 63–57 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 44–48 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 58–55–8 | 50–65–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–17 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.