Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez homered to left (396 feet).2–1
- 3Aranda homered to right (373 feet).2–0
- 2DeLuca homered to center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML TB +101 / SEA -108
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +5 Elo | SEA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 33–269th of 30 |
| 11th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 149913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–48 | 48–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 42–28 | 32–54 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 50–59–5 | 57–51–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–10 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.