Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting2-4
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mesa Jr. hit sacrifice bunt to first, Walls scored.4–0
- 3Caminero homered to left (449 feet).3–0
- 1Simpson singled to left, Aranda scored, Caminero to second.2–0
- 1Aranda singled to left, Mesa Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML TB -147 / COL +138
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- TB: Elo 61.3%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -142
- COL +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +21 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +80 Elo | TB 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 27–3125th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Elo rating | 141530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–48 | 59–55 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–28 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 54–50 |
| Overs–unders | 50–58–5 | 54–56–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–2 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.