Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Everson PereiraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rays- Ben WilliamsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Williamson homered to left (380 feet).9–1
- 9Vargas homered to left center (413 feet), Acuña scored.9–0
- 9Pereira homered to center (410 feet), Meidroth scored.7–0
- 6Pereira doubled to left, Meidroth scored and Peters scored.5–0
- 4Benintendi homered to right center (378 feet).3–0
- 1C. Montgomery scored on Jax wild pitch, Benintendi to second on wild pitch by Jax.2–0
- 1C. Montgomery scored on Jax wild pitch, Benintendi to second on wild pitch by Jax.2–0
- 1Antonacci scored on error, Benintendi safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Jax, C. Montgomery safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML CHW +124 / TB -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- TB: Elo 54.4%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -134
- CHW +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −6 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +31 Elo | TB 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 41–171st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–51 | 63–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 39–27 |
| Underdog | 49–29 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 61–47–2 | 47–58–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–14 TB in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.