Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Liam HicksBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gabriel HughesPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Caminero singled to center, Díaz scored.9–7
- 11Williamson scored on Frasso wild pitch.8–7
- 11Williamson scored on Frasso wild pitch.8–7
- 9Aranda singled to left, Walls scored and Díaz scored, Aranda to second.7–7
- 4Castro homered to right (392 feet), Karros scored.5–7
- 3Moniak homered to right (380 feet), Tovar scored and McCarthy scored.5–5
- 3Tovar singled to center, Beck scored.5–2
- 3Hicks homered to right (402 feet), Palacios scored, Walls scored and Aranda scored.5–1
- 3Aranda walked, Mullins scored, Walls to second, Palacios to third.1–1
- 1Moniak grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, McCarthy scored, Carrigg out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML TB -165 / COL +154
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TB: Elo 58.8%, market 61.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -158
- COL +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +7 | TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Gabriel Hughes: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +62 Elo | TB 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 61.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 27–3023rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 141730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–48 | 59–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–28 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 54–49 |
| Overs–unders | 49–58–5 | 53–56–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–2 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.