Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak hit sacrifice fly to center, Carrigg scored.13–9
- 9Goodman hit sacrifice fly to left, Karros scored, Carrigg to third.13–8
- 9Carrigg doubled to left, McCarthy scored, Karros to third.13–7
- 9McCarthy doubled to left, Tovar scored.13–6
- 9Palacios homered to right (416 feet), Mullins scored.13–5
- 8Moniak homered to right center (447 feet).11–5
- 8Aranda doubled to center, Walls scored.11–4
- 7Karros singled to left, Tovar scored.10–4
- 7McCarthy hit sacrifice fly to right, Johnston scored.10–3
- 7Simpson hit sacrifice fly to center, Caminero scored.10–2
- 7Mullins singled to left, Aranda scored, Mullins to second, Caminero to third.9–2
- 5Karros singled to center, Freeman scored, Tovar to third.8–2
- 4Caminero homered to left center (442 feet).8–1
- 3Tovar homered to left center (398 feet).7–1
- 3Simpson reached on infield single to second, Mullins scored.7–0
- 2Aranda singled to right, Walls scored.6–0
- 2Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Piper scored.5–0
- 2Walls singled to right, Palacios scored and Simpson scored, Piper to third.4–0
- 1Caminero homered to right center (422 feet), Aranda scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML TB -175 / COL +144
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TB: Elo 59.8%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -155
- COL +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +1 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +69 Elo | TB 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 27–2922nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301516 | Elo rating | 141930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–48 | 59–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–28 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 54–48 |
| Overs–unders | 48–58–5 | 52–56–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–2 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.