Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 10Harris II singled to right, Kim scored.2–1
- 8Grisham homered to right center (392 feet).1–1
- 7Olson homered to right center (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML ATL +131 / NYY -141
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.5%, market 57.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- ATL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.9 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +10 Elo | NYY 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3031–27 | Road vs home | 29–2512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–50 | 61–56 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–39 | 42–47 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 55–56–6 | 49–63–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–5 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.