St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burleson homered to right (418 feet), Wetherholt scored.13–7
- 8Crooks homered to right (376 feet), Fermín scored.11–7
- 8Church homered to right (355 feet), Jordan scored and Winn scored.9–7
- 7García Jr. homered to right center (424 feet), Grisham scored.6–7
- 7Caballero homered to left (400 feet).6–5
- 7McMahon homered to center (410 feet).6–4
- 5Grisham homered to right (355 feet).6–3
- 5Wells homered to right center (394 feet), McMahon scored.6–2
- 4Burleson homered to right (365 feet), Walker scored.6–0
- 3Church singled to left, Herrera scored.4–0
- 2Fermín doubled to right, Church scored.3–0
- 1Burleson homered to right (350 feet), Wetherholt scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 68%
- ML STL +202 / NYY -250
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 62.8%, market 68.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -216
- STL +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +91 Elo | NYY 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 68.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 26–2311th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–51 | 59–53 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 41–44 |
| Underdog | 49–25 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 43–63–6 | 47–60–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–5 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.