St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-4
- Hunter DobbinsPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Lombard Jr. homered to left center (392 feet).0–2
- 2Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (397 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML STL +179 / NYY -192
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.8%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -183
- STL +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | STL: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +69 Elo | NYY 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 26–2414th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–51 | 59–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 41–45 |
| Underdog | 50–25 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 44–63–6 | 48–60–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–5 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.