St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Heliot RamosBatting1-3
- Will WarrenPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chisholm Jr. walked, Rice scored, Ramos to second, García Jr. to third. St Louis Cardinals challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–1
- 5Herrera hit a ground rule double, Wetherholt scored.3–0
- 5Wetherholt doubled to center, Crooks scored and Torres scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML STL +144 / NYY -153
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.2%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -148
- STL +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −14 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +50 Elo | NYY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 27–2412th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–52 | 60–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 42–45 |
| Underdog | 50–26 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 44–64–6 | 48–61–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–6 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.