Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grisham homered to right center (398 feet), Lombard Jr. scored.5–10
- 7Chisholm Jr. walked, Rice scored, Ramos to second, Jones to third.5–8
- 7Rice singled to center, Grisham scored.5–7
- 7Grisham doubled to center, Lombard Jr. scored.5–6
- 5Jones doubled to center, Rice scored.5–5
- 5Grisham homered to right (364 feet).5–4
- 5Naylor singled to center, Arozarena scored, Rodríguez to second.5–3
- 3Jones doubled to left, Rice scored and Wells scored.4–3
- 3Canzone homered to right center (397 feet).4–1
- 2McMahon doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, McMahon out stretching at third.3–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to right (378 feet).3–0
- 1Arozarena homered to right (349 feet), Young scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML SEA +120 / NYY -128
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −11 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +64 Elo | NYY 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3023–35 | Road vs home | 30–2611th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 17th of 301493 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–72 | 62–57 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 43–48 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 57–55–8 | 49–65–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–16 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.