Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hicks doubled to left, Díaz scored and Simpson scored, Caminero to third.4–1
- 5Mullins singled to center, Caminero scored, Hicks to third.2–1
- 4Díaz singled to left, Mullins scored, Palacios to second.1–1
- 1Young singled to right, Ward scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML TB -104 / SEA -104
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −6 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 33–2811th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 149714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–48 | 48–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 42–28 | 32–56 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 50–61–5 | 57–53–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 14–10 SEA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.