Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Victor Mesa Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Naylor homered to right center (434 feet).3–2
- 6Palacios singled to right, Mullins scored and Simpson scored, Hicks to third.3–1
- 4Mesa Jr. homered to right (412 feet).1–1
- 2Naylor homered to right center (367 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML TB +125 / SEA -134
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 46.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- TB +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −1 | TB: Casey Legumina: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 12th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 33–2711th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 7th of 301522 | Elo rating | 149814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–48 | 48–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 42–28 | 32–55 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 50–60–5 | 57–52–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–10 SEA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.