Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grisham singled to left, Jones scored and McMahon scored, Wells to second.1–4
- 7McMahon singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored and García Jr. scored, Jones to second.1–2
- 6Arozarena homered to right (351 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML SEA +120 / NYY -129
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +72 Elo | NYY 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 3023–34 | Road vs home | 29–2614th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 16th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–71 | 61–57 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 42–48 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 57–54–8 | 49–64–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–15 NYY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.