Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Nick AllenBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Giants- Victor BericotoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Allen hit sacrifice fly to left, Trammell scored.2–1
- 7Velázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored.1–1
- 1Bericoto singled to left, Adames scored, Devers to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML HOU -147 / SF +137
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.6%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -141
- SF +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −2 | HOU: Bryan King (no track record yet) · SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 11th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 28–3024th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Elo rating | 147926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–57 | 60–60 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–30 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 42–27 | 42–35 |
| Overs–unders | 64–50–7 | 54–55–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–8 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.