Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Victor RoblesBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Walker homered to left (405 feet), Altuve scored and Varsho scored.7–10
- 10Varsho singled to left, Allen scored, Altuve to second.7–7
- 10Paredes singled to center, Peña scored.7–6
- 10Rodden hit sacrifice fly to left, Robles scored.7–5
- 10Robles tripled to center, Donovan scored.6–5
- 8Rodden hit a ground rule double, We. Wilson scored, Robles to third.5–5
- 8Donovan grounded out to shortstop, Rodríguez scored.4–5
- 6Robles singled to left, Naylor scored.3–5
- 2Paredes reached on infield single to third, Peña scored and Vázquez scored, Alvarez to second.2–5
- 2Peña singled to right, Smith scored, Vázquez to second.2–3
- 2Smith tripled to left, Walker scored.2–2
- 1Alvarez homered to right (368 feet).2–1
- 1Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Canzone scored, Rodríguez to third.2–0
- 1Canzone singled to right, Arozarena scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML SEA +111 / HOU -119
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.7%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +40 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–36 | Road vs home | 30–2917th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 150313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–73 | 64–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 22–31 |
| Underdog | 17–16 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 58–56–8 | 64–51–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 32–15 HOU in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 47.