Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Allen homered to left (387 feet).3–2
- 6Raleigh homered to left (327 feet).3–1
- 4Peña homered to right (369 feet).2–1
- 3Canzone singled to right, Rodden scored.2–0
- 1Arozarena homered to left center (365 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML SEA +111 / HOU -119
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.1%, market 53.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- SEA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 26th of 3025–37 | Road vs home | 31–3016th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–74 | 65–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 18–17 | 42–27 |
| Overs–unders | 60–56–8 | 66–51–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 33–16 HOU in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 49.