Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Denzer GuzmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting4-5
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Duran reached on infield single to third, Langford scored on throwing error by third baseman Guzman, Nimmo to second.1–2
- 10Langford doubled to right, Carter scored.1–1
- 10Guzman doubled to left, Siri scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML LAA +127 / TEX -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.5%, market 56.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -131
- LAA +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.5 – 4.0 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +3 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +46 Elo | TEX 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–41 | Road vs home | 34–2810th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 28th of 301449 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–69 | 55–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–25 | 24–47 |
| Underdog | 51–44 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders | 53–73–2 | 62–58–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 1–8–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 22–27 TEX in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 49.